This Poll Could Be an Outlier

Good Monday morning, Friends,

This just in. A Siena College Research Institute poll of 717 registered voters gives Hillary Clinton a 30 point lead in a head-to-head race for president against Donald Trump.

These kind of numbers, if they're right, are walk away numbers for The Donald.

In presidential election history, no major-party candidate ever has been behind by such a large margin in mid August, much less overcome it.

And the likelihood of this poll being accurate is extremely high.

There is a slight isuue with it, however. All of the registered voters polled were in New York State.

And the Empire State is hardly representative of the country as a whole.

With extremely liberal, multi-cultural and populous New York City overwhelming the conservative Upstate, Democrats generally prevail in New York. So it's no surprise that its former popular senator leads its GOP native son.

But the size of Hillary's lead is astounding.

As a major builder, Trump has arguably been a YUGE factor in New York City's comeback from its days in the 1970's as the nation's violent crime capital, teetering on the verge of bankruptcy.

His lack of support in his home state is a surprise.

But the Siena poll is the first one out this week, and I assume other polls that follow will be more in line with the six to eight point Hillary lead we've been seeing.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but shouldn't the lines be going the other way this late into
the presidential race?

Subsequent polls should also indicate if the Clinton campaign is suffering at all from Hillary's latest, and possibly most serious but extremely complicated, email scandal.

These emails seem to show a cozy relationship between the U.S. Department of State and her and Bill's private foundation, from which The Clintons have personally netted $100 million dollars over the past 10 years. I had no idea that former elected officials could make that much money!

Once again, bad optics (at very least).

One thing for certain, another Clinton presidency will be scandal-ridden and distracting.

A Trump presidency poses an existential threat.

Do you see where I'm headed here?

Here's a hint: I'm leaning toward the candidate whose nickname has the word "honest' in it.