Detailed Analysis Reveals Math Not so Bad for Bern

Dear Friends,

Our hearts go out this morning to the victims and their families of Egyptair Flight 804.

We now enter the longest lull in this primary season with no more contests until the June 4th Virgin Islands Democratic Caucus. Politics is likely not on most of our minds this morning.

There is, however, a rumble slowly building within the leadership of the blue party that it's time for Bernie Sanders to drop out of the race. He's become a distraction and may cause Hillary Clinton, their anointed one, some genuine damage that she can ill afford.

Bernie has vowed to stay in through the last of the nominating contests; Washington, D.C. on June 14th.

Hillary needs just 95 more delegates to clinch the nomination and 930 are still up for grabs; all of them to be divided up proportionally.

It would seem pretty hopeless for The Bern. That is, until you do the math.

Who else but a pundit would  actually sit down and crunch the numbers so
you don't have to? 

After performing a detailed analysis, I can see why the math gives Bernie Sanders every reason to stay in the race until the final vote is cast, and here's why:

Bernie can still lose five of the nine remaining contests and beat Hillary in pledged delegates.

Now, this will not win Sanders the nomination under current rules. Hillary beats Bernie after the polls close on June 7th because of the hundreds of "super delegates" gifted to her by the Democratic party gods.

But if Bernie beats Hillary in both pledged delegates and actual votes, the party leadership will have to face off with the Bernie revolution if she's nominated pro forma.

They'll not only have to reconcile an internecine revolution but also a likely revolt. Millions of voters will simply walk.

The party is cognizant of this and is frantically working on strategies to keep Bernie's followers in the fold. I don't see any way of appeasing most of them, short of putting Bernie on the ticket.

This would be the smartest tactical move, though no one has accused the Democratic party leadership of being smart.

Meanwhile, Bernie will continue to argue that super delegates be awarded proportionally like pledged delegates, which is not exactly an outlandish request.

And as far as the numbers go, here's at least one plausible winning scenario the Sanders' campaign is examining:

Virgin Islands closed caucus--lose--delegates split 5-7
Puerto Rico closed caucus--lose--delegates split 32-35
California open primary--win with 74,7% of vote--delegates split 408-138
Montana open primary--win--delegates split 15-12
New Jersey closed primary--lose--delegates split 70-72
New Mexico closed primary--lose--delegates split  21-22
North Dakota open primary--win--delegates split 14-9
South Dakota open caucus--win--delegates split 16-9
Washington, D.C. closed primary--lose--delegates split 22-23

Bernie Sanders has nearly three weeks to build up his lead in wide open California. A landslide victory there is within the realm of possibility, and it's the only YUGE win he needs.

He'll have to keep any defeats close, but that hasn't been a problem for him lately. And he could do much better than winning just four of the remaining contests.

In this very-realistic scenario. the final pledged delegate count would be Sanders 2,097, Clinton 2,095, and Sanders secures his argument that he's the candidate with momentum, the most pledged delegates and votes.

He's brought in millions of new voters and Independents who are loyal to him--not to the party and definitely not to Hillary Clinton.

It'll be up to the party whether or not to listen.