West Virginia Could Be Bernie's Deliverance

Another primary Tuesday, Friends,

There are just a couple of primaries today, and only one has any meaning at all--the Democratic contest in West Virginia.

Almost heaven maybe, but West Virginia could actually be hell for Bernie Sanders
if he doesn't win there today.

Normally, this primary would go by unnoticed and have little impact on the race; but not today.

As far as delegates go, there are not very many at stake--just 29. And the Democratic party splits delegates proportionally, so they will likely be divvied up pretty evenly.

But the importance of the race is this. It will determine momentum going into the western swing of primaries, and it's really a must-win for Bernie Sanders.

With a win, Bernie can stay in the race with at least a tenuous claim of being viable as a candidate. But a loss to Hillary Clinton will signal that Bernie's campaign has sprung an irreparable leak.

West Virginia is a "mixed" primary, which means that Independents can vote in the Democratic primary with conditions.

The Independent vote has been key to Bernie's victories in the 18 contests he's won so far. In states that were closed to Independent voters, Bernie has invariably lost.

So West Virginia is a litmus test of sorts.

If Bernie carries the state, he can continue to make the argument that only he can attract the Independent vote in a general election. He can also still make the claim that he's favored by voters under 45 and  by white voters in general.

But a loss for Bernie in mainly white, mainly blue collar West Virginia--two of his biggest constituencies--would be like a punch to the gut. It would completely knock the wind out of the Sanders campaign.

He'll have nothing left heading into California, and Hillary will need fewer than 150 delegates to clinch the Democratic nomination.

The polls are not indicating which way this one will go. It's a dead heat.

But even though I sense a bit of slippage in the Sanders campaign's energy, Bernie still looks like the winner.

Tonight, little West Virginia will either deliver Bernie Sanders or send him packing