The Landscape Changes Today

Happy Indiana Primary day, Friends,

By the end of the day, Donald Trump will have clinched the GOP nomination. That's not shocking news, but what may be the real story is that Bernie Sanders' campaign could be genuinely rejuvenated.

Last week, I said that Bernie's new strategy appeared to be to prevent Hillary Clinton from getting enough votes for a first-vote nomination at this summer's Democratic convention in Philadelphia.

I read Lew's Views last week and decided he was right. He said I
should shoot for a contested convention, and that's exactly what I'm
going to do! 

A day later, Bernie came out publicly and announced it.

At that point, it did not seem likely that Sanders even had a chance to win today's primary in Indiana.

But the poll numbers have tightened up, and now they show him in a virtual dead heat with Hillary Clinton.

Each time the poll's have forecast a contest this close, Bernie has come up the winner. I believe that will happen again in Indiana.

On the Republican side, the Indiana primary is a modified winner-take-all state, but not for the Democrats.

In all their primaries, delegates are awarded proportionally. That means in close contests, the pledged delegates are virtually split evenly.

At this point, Sanders is more than 200 pledged delegates behind Hillary.

And because the party has already awarded 16% of the total delegates (700+) to Clinton as "super delegates," she goes into each contest with a big lead. A Sanders win, even in a blowout, can actually result in Hillary getting more delegates,

That's why Donald Trump, and now increasingly Sanders, have been saying the system is rigged.

If Sanders wins today he'll already have won some 18 contests. He may wind up winning more than half of them, including the grand prize of California by double digits, and still lose the nomination to Hillary. The math says that's what will happen.

But Bernie will not go quietly, especially if he wins today and eventually winds up with more popular votes and pledged delegates than Hillary. It's still quite possible.

If  Sanders takes Indiana, and has momentum going into the remaining western-state primaries and one remaining caucus in South Dakota, he'll sweep those and go into the convention as the popular favorite.

Even though he'll still trail in super delegate votes, the party would have genuine hell to pay if it flouts the wishes of its voters.

We're not at this point yet, and Bernie first has to win today. But if  he does, the landscape in this crazy presidential race changes yet again.