Republican strategist Matt Dowd raised an excellent point yesterday morning. He said that calling this election as 'close', right down to the wire, could cause the country genuine harm when Donald Trump inevitably loses.
Barring some earth-orbit-altering event between now and November 8th, that is what's going to happen.
The numbers bear it out, just as they did in Hillary Clinton's primary against Bernie Sanders.
Polling has become extremely scientific--in our country at least--and the math doesn't lie.
And though there are plenty of lies flying around in this election, the numbers don't participate in them. The numbers speak only truth.
And as erstwhile Republican pollster and Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway would tell you--if she had a shred of honesty left in her--her boss is headed for a cataclysmic loss.
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| Do you know me? I'm the most annoying and disingenuous person in the USA! Hey, at least I'm loyal. What's that? Eva Braun was loyal? Who's she? |
In visible pain, Conway admitted to NBC's Chuck Todd yesterday morning that the Trump campaign "is behind."
Yesterday's ABC Tracking poll showed Hillary now up by 12 percent. But even more significantly, she garnered 50 percent of the vote for just the second time, while Trump fell to 38 percent.
This is the first poll to show Trump's support eroding below his typical 42 to 44 percent. It's not a real stretch to predict that others of the more reputable polls will follow suit.
No candidate in American history has made up a 12-point gap with fewer than 15 days remaining until Election Day.
Not to say that Trump can't make history again--as he did in the primary. But I don't believe he's that charmed.
And continuing to mislead his followers that the election is close--and anyway otherwise 'rigged' --may cause thousands or even millions of the most 'deplorable' of them to actually make good on an already iterated threat of armed revolt, should Clinton win.
Trump is well aware of what he's doing, and he either naively believes that not one of his sycophants will make good on the threat, or he tacitly supports it.
Either way, what he's doing is dangerous and seditious. And if he continues to whip up his minions once he's back in private life, he probably should be the one who gets locked up...not Hillary Clinton.
I've talked about how Trump's M.O. is projection. Every valid, despicable thing his detractors accuse him of he fends off by reflecting it back on that accuser.
It's the defense we all learned as a child, but unlike other adults he still uses, "I'm rubber, you're glue..."
Remember Trump's "no, you're the puppet," in debate number three?
The Donald, however, needs no instigation. He telegraphs what he's thinking or feeling about himself whenever he calls a rival an unprovoked name.
Of all the many, many candidates who were in this race from the many parties, he's obviously the biggest liar and crook, and probably the littlest in other ways besides his hands.
But back to the point. Some think that Trump continually calling the election "rigged" will suppress GOP turnout and cause a Clinton landslide--a paradigm of the self-fulfilling prophecy.
Let's hope that's the case, or that we can trust that the scientific polls are correct and Mrs. Clinton will get a YUGE mandate. Either way, it's important to call things as they actually are, not say the election is "close" to avoid the appearance of overconfidence.
The numbers tell us conclusively that voters will wake up to a decisive Clinton victory on the morning of November 9th.
And that's the way it is.
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